Heilongjiang Lighthouse International Logistics Co., Ltd.

The situation around the Strait of Hormuz is no longer just a temporary disruption — it is becoming structural.

According to Xclusiv Shipbrokers, access to one of the world’s key oil trade routes is increasingly selective and driven by geopolitical factors. A new model is emerging: “permission-based transit”, where passage depends on political and economic arrangements.

Traffic through the strait has dropped significantly, with remaining flows shifting toward “friendly” countries, mainly in Asia. This is fragmenting global trade patterns and reshaping traditional routes.

The impact is already visible. Restricted access has effectively removed part of the fleet from the market, tightening tonnage supply. As a result, VLCC earnings have surged — in some periods exceeding $170,000 per day, with spikes of over 300%.

Suezmax and Aframax segments have also seen strong, though more moderate, gains.

At the same time, secondary effects are emerging: flag changes, increased use of diplomatic channels to secure passage, and rising operational costs.

The key takeaway:

the market is shifting from a short-term shock to a new operating reality — where control over strategic chokepoints becomes a tool of economic influence.

For shipping, this means longer routes, higher ton-miles, and continued volatility in freight rates, especially in the tanker segment.

According to Indian Register of Shipping, the main failure point of AI in maritime operations is not the models themselves, but the degradation of data. AI is already widely used in navigation, predictive maintenance, and structural monitoring, directly impacting operational safety. However, in real-world conditions, data is far from perfect: sensors lose calibration, AIS and GPS signals become unstable, and system synchronization is often disrupted. Despite this, AI systems continue to produce “confident” outputs even as input data gradually diverges from reality, creating hidden and potentially critical risks. From an industry perspective, the core challenge is shifting toward robust data governance — including validation of data sources, cross-checking inputs rather than relying on a single source such as AIS, defining operational design domains (ODD), and continuously monitoring data degradation. The key takeaway for shipowners is clear: responsibility for decisions remains with the operator, not the algorithm. As AI adoption grows, insurers and financial institutions are increasingly focusing not on the presence of advanced technologies, but on the quality of data management and cyber resilience.

Global container freight rates are showing signs of recovery as Asian factories resume production following the Lunar New Year holidays. According to Drewry, the composite World Container Index (WCI) increased by 3% to $1,958 per 40-foot container, marking the first rise after seven consecutive weeks of decline.

The rebound is most visible on transpacific routes:

— Shanghai–Los Angeles rates climbed 10% to $2,402

— Shanghai–New York increased 7% to $2,977

Meanwhile, Asia–Europe lanes remain weaker:

— Shanghai–Rotterdam fell 2% to $2,052

— Shanghai–Genoa edged up just 1% to $2,844

As manufacturing activity in Asia picks up, carriers are gradually returning vessels to service and reducing the number of blank sailings.

However, escalating tensions in the Middle East and security risks around the Strait of Hormuz could quickly reintroduce volatility into the market. Higher war-risk insurance premiums, potential delays, and vessel rerouting may all influence freight rates.

For the container shipping market, this creates a fragile balance between seasonal demand recovery and geopolitical risk — a combination that could rapidly shift freight pricing and vessel availability.